Serie A · resolved market
Will Napoli win on 2025-08-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc437bd059f25c833bf94c429a8358fd4b6f40e0b0810c3e62e75ee83f1929b2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 35c | 7,475$2,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,626.88 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 71c | 3,430$2,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.16 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 64c | 2,343$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.36 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +30%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 75c | 1,804$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.87 | 117 | 72.6%85 W · 32 L | +28.2wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 27c | 1,690$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.18 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 40c | 799.19$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.67 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…2dbcbacked No | 4c | 560$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Yes | 60c | 480.13$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.13 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 22c | 400.6$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.91 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 39c | 386.69$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.05 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…a26ebacked Yes | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 37c | 268.27$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.26 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 43c | 232.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…bbb9backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb1…4df1backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d99…9666backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x931b…cb60backed Yes | 60c | 162.47$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Yes | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 9c | 121$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Yes | 62c | 119.35$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 78c | 118.86$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 61c | 102.46$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d91…863dbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5a…4b33backed Yes | 59c | 87.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…438abacked Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 372 | 50.5%188 W · 184 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…f8b9backed Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf436…3beebacked Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 39c | 47.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Yes | 61c | 47.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Yes | 59c | 46.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…675abacked Yes | 60c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0442…ab1fbacked Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…5cb2backed Yes | 61c | 36.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac8e…07f7backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321c…18ddbacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc752…1f6cbacked Yes | 60c | 29.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6493…fdd0backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x523e…d133backed Yes | 60c | 22.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52bf…baecbacked Yes | 60c | 21.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Napoli win on 2025-08-23?this page
- Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Napoli end in a draw?No won
- Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-08-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.