Olympics · resolved market
Will Joy Beune (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 3000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc452b9bd2ae26f9856c650a79e4ca72402c52b8dc041cf228094d014607c284f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99ea…2844backed Yes | 46c | 474.72$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 52c | 299.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a7…64bfbacked Yes | 45c | 220.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.73 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 57c | 180.17$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed Yes | 37c | 165.72$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…3805backed Yes | 47c | 116.18$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x554f…2869backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…9862backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d6…9651backed Yes | 45c | 73.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…f046backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…01d7backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5365…2f79backed Yes | 49c | 41.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 53c | 35.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…d8d1backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…54cebacked Yes | 49c | 28.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b0…afd6backed No | 76c | 26.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55aa…4f8ebacked Yes | 46c | 25.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -61%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 57c | 22.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Joy Beune (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 3000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Marijke Groenewoud (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 3000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Ragne Wiklund (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 3000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.