Champions League · resolved market
Olympiakós SFP vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc490f30d70b295358cf7eac8438a11f3242720f4aa6bd83829b78e820194d1cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 73c | 1,171$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.59 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 27c | 1,025$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.23 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Under | 35c | 750$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 35c | 443.69$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.29 | 189 | 50.3%95 W · 94 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…457fbacked Over | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 66c | 224.07$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.34 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…61cdbacked Over | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 33c | 199.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Under | 36c | 190$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 64c | 165$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 380 | 43.9%167 W · 213 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 67c | 141.88$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 35c | 126.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 65c | 61.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7e…d934backed Over | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9190…5701backed Over | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed Over | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…bc89backed Over | 66c | 22.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympiakós SFP vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5this page
- Olympiakós SFP vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Olympiakós SFP vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympiakós SFP vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Olympiakós SFP won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.