Champions League · resolved market
Olympiakós SFP vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0aa26a79d2c2b15cb32f5bec9c5797a19ddcddd7e62e6242517ede412110fff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x11cf…2674backed Over | 45c | 8,549$3,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,736.56 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 55c | 3,017$1,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,663.28 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Under | 49c | 2,071$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 57c | 1,797$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.89 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 1,238$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.93 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 43c | 1,162$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.34 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 1,077$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.72 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Under | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.99 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 55c | 750.3$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.35 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 704.25$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.63 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ea…f888backed Under | 59c | 600$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…9e65backed Over | 45c | 511.11$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 193 | 44%85 W · 108 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 58c | 443.71$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.35 | 189 | 50.3%95 W · 94 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 45c | 440$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 57c | 344.45$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.33 | 375 | 44%165 W · 210 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Under | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 111 | 35.1%39 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Under | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 58c | 243.1$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 56c | 199.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a1…4799backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 57c | 159.2$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.74 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…a8e1backed Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d1…84a2backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 44c | 110$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4b…82c2backed Under | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed Under | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 43c | 88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 213 | 54%115 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc420…2badbacked Under | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf68…8682backed Under | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Over | 59c | 68.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc270…1379backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 42c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 380 | 43.9%167 W · 213 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed Under | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Over | 47c | 32.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 53c | 32.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e2…126bbacked Under | 57c | 31.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Under | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Under | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympiakós SFP vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5this page
- Olympiakós SFP vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Olympiakós SFP vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympiakós SFP vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Olympiakós SFP won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.