Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5009dcdbca8367edb76ff6a2f4075b1c3f67e276a4f7f3aad7b047d87994bdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8401…0fa1backed Yes | 16c | 5,935$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 17c | 3,706$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.07 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 4c | 2,626$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.37 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…0607backed Yes | 17c | 2,146$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.82 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 15c | 2,045$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.77 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 18c | 700$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 17c | 699.17$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.47 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68b…7044backed Yes | 17c | 631.6$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef9c…7b3fbacked Yes | 2c | 416.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 16c | 296.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…50c8backed Yes | 16c | 296.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 15c | 270.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…7976backed Yes | 11c | 260.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Yes | 15c | 259.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86be…4490backed Yes | 16c | 249.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 16c | 207.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 15c | 186.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 16c | 178.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…a686backed Yes | 10c | 113.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…4413backed Yes | 10c | 109.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 121 | 41.3%50 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 15c | 102$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Yes | 16c | 100.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d21…df94backed Yes | 20c | 95.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ad…241bbacked No | 80c | 94.78$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9198backed Yes | 21c | 94.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 79c | 61.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 80c | 30.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?this page
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-04-12?No won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.