Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-04-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a81da2072e4b4a3b3c347b65ef8f2ce4228701504b1ffafb07c55c5c9260091
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 1c | 9,992$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 8c | 5,248$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.18 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…17bfbacked Yes | 11c | 3,815$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.36 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f49…104dbacked Yes | 10c | 2,839$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…b339backed Yes | 12c | 2,003$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.41 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85e5…9343backed Yes | 10c | 1,946$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8101…e7bebacked Yes | 12c | 1,505$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.65 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 9c | 631.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 3c | 481.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 10c | 473$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 11c | 430.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Yes | 10c | 357.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fd…4c96backed Yes | 11c | 236.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Yes | 13c | 218.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Yes | 11c | 206.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -72%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 9c | 189.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…82f2backed Yes | 10c | 189.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x067e…625bbacked Yes | 11c | 178.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ce…c264backed Yes | 10c | 141.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 10c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…f247backed Yes | 10c | 120.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddb…7062backed Yes | 10c | 97.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-04-12?this page
- Will VfB Stuttgart vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?No won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.