CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: ASTR (-1.5) vs SAW (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5b3ffd00117d6b1d28bb3029250b651d807d10b68aaa8e4ecff4e90f60a7c23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ASTRALof ASTRAL, SAW
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked ASTRAL | 61c | 2,865$1,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.18 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked SAW | 39c | 888.92$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.68 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…4404backed ASTRAL | 62c | 600$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 640 | 58.1%372 W · 268 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed SAW | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed SAW | 39c | 427$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.9 | 293 | 40.6%119 W · 174 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed ASTRAL | 47c | 422.78$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.34 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked ASTRAL | 47c | 403.85$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.39 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked SAW | 40c | 378.08$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.23 | 239 | 52.3%125 W · 114 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…7035backed ASTRAL | 53c | 300$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 454 | 65.9%299 W · 155 L | +20.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed SAW | 38c | 282$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.16 | 203 | 53.2%108 W · 95 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ff…b842backed SAW | 53c | 281.52$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked SAW | 36c | 273.49$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc83f…23e4backed SAW | 42c | 228.32$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed SAW | 36c | 203.48$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.25 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed SAW | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1,038 | 39.9%414 W · 624 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed SAW | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 340 | 36.5%124 W · 216 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked SAW | 52c | 147.22$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.55 | 919 | 45.8%421 W · 498 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed SAW | 52c | 139.96$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.78 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed SAW | 40c | 130.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 807 | 40.3%325 W · 482 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04f…c3a4backed SAW | 54c | 109$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked SAW | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 262 | 46.9%123 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed SAW | 52c | 81.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 513 | 48.3%248 W · 265 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed ASTRAL | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed SAW | 53c | 21.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: ASTR (-1.5) vs SAW (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: SAW vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #3 Play-InASTRAL won
- Counter-Strike: SAW vs ASTRAL - Map 1 WinnerASTRAL won
- Counter-Strike: SAW vs ASTRAL - Map 2 WinnerASTRAL won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.