CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: SAW vs ASTRAL - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeeb6db9cccdb9856aba3c494422e8edf95de0a8686baff03df1bac11f4cba431
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ASTRALof SAW, ASTRAL
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked SAW | 41c | 7,010$2,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,854.13 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked SAW | 42c | 2,873$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.82 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x527d…3d71backed ASTRAL | 55c | 2,500$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked SAW | 14c | 2,093$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.19 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked ASTRAL | 61c | 2,069$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.96 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed ASTRAL | 35c | 1,714$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.1 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +6.8wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd57b…c48fbacked ASTRAL | 76c | 1,400$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.44 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked SAW | 23c | 1,350$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.5 | 1,513 | 57.2%865 W · 648 L | +65.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked ASTRAL | 67c | 1,111$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.79 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed ASTRAL | 62c | 615.89$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 1,088 | 54.2%590 W · 498 L | +39.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked ASTRAL | 75c | 615$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.72 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed ASTRAL | 78c | 499.87$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.47 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed ASTRAL | 67c | 460.05$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.68 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…9097backed SAW | 32c | 437.5$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked SAW | 34c | 425.97$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.54 | 558 | 43.5%243 W · 315 L | -16.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed ASTRAL | 54c | 400$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 293 | 47.8%140 W · 153 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed ASTRAL | 66c | 347.3$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.44 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked ASTRAL | 64c | 329.17$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.28 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ec…81bebacked ASTRAL | 30c | 300.95$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked SAW | 28c | 291.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.01 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4a…3647backed ASTRAL | 36c | 285.71$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed SAW | 32c | 264.47$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.01 | 807 | 40.3%325 W · 482 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed ASTRAL | 37c | 212.36$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.79 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed ASTRAL | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 184 | 32.6%60 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed ASTRAL | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 644 | 39.8%256 W · 388 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977c…57ecbacked SAW | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -51%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed ASTRAL | 47c | 190$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.57 | 452 | 40.3%182 W · 270 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8e…5610backed SAW | 12c | 188.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed ASTRAL | 53c | 187$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 340 | 36.5%124 W · 216 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed SAW | 30c | 175.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 513 | 48.3%248 W · 265 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…a4cbbacked SAW | 37c | 148.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 260 | 48.8%127 W · 133 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked ASTRAL | 61c | 137.53$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09fd…60f7backed SAW | 15c | 131.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 22.9%19 W · 64 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9a…a9c7backed SAW | 13c | 119.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed SAW | 12c | 108.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 172 | 36%62 W · 110 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed ASTRAL | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 332 | 41.6%138 W · 194 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed SAW | 44c | 86.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 418 | 47.1%197 W · 221 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a06…71c8backed SAW | 45c | 84.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcebe…0720backed ASTRAL | 38c | 82.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…0d8abacked SAW | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 330 | 57.3%189 W · 141 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked SAW | 36c | 78.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ba…06b3backed SAW | 27c | 70.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42f3…7d20backed SAW | 35c | 64.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…4a19backed SAW | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2669…fa0dbacked ASTRAL | 32c | 62.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked ASTRAL | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 446 | 75.3%336 W · 110 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a4…dbc9backed ASTRAL | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e42…f22abacked ASTRAL | 37c | 36.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 217 | 41%89 W · 128 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0961…6c84backed SAW | 38c | 35.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed SAW | 53c | 25.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed ASTRAL | 63c | 21.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked ASTRAL | 62c | 21.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 384 | 69.5%267 W · 117 L | +31.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe53b…fe03backed ASTRAL | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 413 | 72.2%298 W · 115 L | +25.0wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: SAW vs ASTRAL - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: SAW vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #3 Play-InASTRAL won
- Counter-Strike: SAW vs ASTRAL - Map 1 WinnerASTRAL won
- Map Handicap: ASTR (-1.5) vs SAW (+1.5)ASTRAL won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.