CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: SAW vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #3 Play-In
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6341a29d0cdf69eba6f4f96077ba9bb7bfac4a2d68edf60efbfbf3ccf6faf4f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ASTRALof SAW, ASTRAL
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked SAW | 19c | 9,613$1,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,841.98 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked ASTRAL | 74c | 6,281$4,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,618.27 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed ASTRAL | 74c | 6,031$4,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,578.17 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked ASTRAL | 75c | 2,010$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.03 | 1,513 | 57.2%865 W · 648 L | +65.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…989fbacked SAW | 29c | 1,561$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.71 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed SAW | 26c | 1,452$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.08 | 499 | 35.1%175 W · 324 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…bafcbacked SAW | 27c | 1,350$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.43 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed SAW | 25c | 1,321$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.67 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b50…1db2backed SAW | 26c | 1,291$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.23 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…2a18backed SAW | 22c | 1,282$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.46 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41dc…9c3dbacked SAW | 9c | 1,112$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed ASTRAL | 75c | 994.49$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.42 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked ASTRAL | 72c | 976.28$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.51 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed ASTRAL | 73c | 961.67$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.26 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed ASTRAL | 78c | 855.08$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.94 | 1,088 | 54.2%590 W · 498 L | +39.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa97c…ca21backed SAW | 24c | 833.73$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked SAW | 12c | 826.07$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.86 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed SAW | 19c | 795.94$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.04 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…7b70backed SAW | 26c | 743.24$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.81 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd02a…4771backed SAW | 25c | 581.4$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed SAW | 38c | 528.7$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 404 | 49.8%201 W · 203 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…2d3dbacked SAW | 24c | 501.77$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.71 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e11…e1f5backed ASTRAL | 76c | 418.93$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.54 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba55…41f1backed SAW | 22c | 410$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7f…2ae7backed SAW | 25c | 408$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.78 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed SAW | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.74 | 576 | 41.5%239 W · 337 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef0…88abbacked SAW | 17c | 386.64$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…0ae8backed SAW | 27c | 372.94$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c9…5e53backed SAW | 12c | 353.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed SAW | 25c | 343.7$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 593 | 43.2%256 W · 337 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed SAW | 27c | 333.14$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked ASTRAL | 77c | 302.93$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.56 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed SAW | 28c | 283.47$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.95 | 807 | 40.3%325 W · 482 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked SAW | 30c | 279.05$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.09 | 558 | 43.5%243 W · 315 L | -16.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed SAW | 27c | 260$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed ASTRAL | 77c | 259.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.32 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed ASTRAL | 72c | 218.75$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe252…5714backed SAW | 23c | 217.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 233 | 35.2%82 W · 151 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed ASTRAL | 76c | 209$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 740 | 54.6%404 W · 336 L | +15.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed SAW | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 340 | 36.5%124 W · 216 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429e…41bdbacked SAW | 25c | 199.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb4…d18ebacked SAW | 22c | 195$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…22b8backed SAW | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed SAW | 23c | 185.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 1,618 | 46.8%758 W · 860 L | -28.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked SAW | 26c | 180$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 919 | 45.8%421 W · 498 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked SAW | 24c | 180$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 388 | 44.3%172 W · 216 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9b…36f9backed SAW | 38c | 140.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked SAW | 10c | 136.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed SAW | 24c | 134.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 1,033 | 53.2%550 W · 483 L | +64.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc486…e7e2backed SAW | 17c | 129.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed SAW | 21c | 113.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 1,411 | 33.7%475 W · 936 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked SAW | 19c | 111$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…fc98backed SAW | 25c | 109.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 248 | 40.7%101 W · 147 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked SAW | 24c | 101$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 239 | 52.3%125 W · 114 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35f0…971ebacked SAW | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…f4a0backed ASTRAL | 76c | 98.84$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 838 | 56.1%470 W · 368 L | +31.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed ASTRAL | 79c | 98.49$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ca…f810backed SAW | 12c | 98.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed ASTRAL | 80c | 94.17$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed SAW | 15c | 88.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed ASTRAL | 74c | 88$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 991 | 48.3%479 W · 512 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4105…9f14backed SAW | 28c | 84.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52cd…85fbbacked SAW | 39c | 80.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 365 | 41.9%153 W · 212 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ASTRAL | 79c | 79.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f2…c423backed SAW | 28c | 71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…1dafbacked ASTRAL | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…870ebacked SAW | 23c | 56.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…9c69backed ASTRAL | 77c | 55.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…3518backed ASTRAL | 75c | 51.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…a4edbacked SAW | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +258.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed ASTRAL | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 500 | 56.6%283 W · 217 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed ASTRAL | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…d1b7backed ASTRAL | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…9712backed ASTRAL | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 281 | 73%205 W · 76 L | +21.6wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…df1dbacked ASTRAL | 66c | 24.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3d…58f5backed ASTRAL | 74c | 22.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 378 | 55.3%209 W · 169 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed ASTRAL | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked ASTRAL | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed ASTRAL | 73c | 16.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…5531backed ASTRAL | 76c | 15.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: SAW vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #3 Play-Inthis page
- Counter-Strike: SAW vs ASTRAL - Map 1 WinnerASTRAL won
- Counter-Strike: SAW vs ASTRAL - Map 2 WinnerASTRAL won
- Map Handicap: ASTR (-1.5) vs SAW (+1.5)ASTRAL won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.