CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: SAW vs ASTRAL - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21071f44d00bafc183328798f2c778c2290906a77298f07af06802bb82062f53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ASTRALof SAW, ASTRAL
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked SAW | 44c | 38,615$17,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,005.68 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked ASTRAL | 47c | 26,476$12,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,972.87 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked ASTRAL | 74c | 6,493$4,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,682.33 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x527d…3d71backed ASTRAL | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked ASTRAL | 68c | 1,400$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.94 | 1,513 | 57.2%865 W · 648 L | +65.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…4404backed ASTRAL | 78c | 1,300$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.28 | 640 | 58.1%372 W · 268 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed ASTRAL | 52c | 1,159$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.92 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked ASTRAL | 59c | 792$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.26 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked ASTRAL | 66c | 789.83$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.75 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked SAW | 37c | 647.38$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.64 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked SAW | 34c | 509.87$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.37 | 558 | 43.5%243 W · 315 L | -16.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed ASTRAL | 73c | 500$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.41 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977c…57ecbacked SAW | 13c | 464.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -51%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…663bbacked SAW | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked SAW | 50c | 223$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.53 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked SAW | 19c | 222$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed SAW | 32c | 220.75$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 462 | 43.3%200 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed ASTRAL | 59c | 203.53$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.53 | 340 | 36.5%124 W · 216 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed ASTRAL | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 644 | 39.8%256 W · 388 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed SAW | 12c | 142.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ba…06b3backed ASTRAL | 36c | 139.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.71 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed SAW | 51c | 126.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.73 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8e…8e0dbacked ASTRAL | 54c | 124.8$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 503 | 58.6%295 W · 208 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked ASTRAL | 69c | 97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 1,011 | 52.3%529 W · 482 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e42…f22abacked ASTRAL | 36c | 79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 217 | 41%89 W · 128 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed ASTRAL | 69c | 77.69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4704…515ebacked SAW | 53c | 71.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 371 | 40.7%151 W · 220 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…66d1backed SAW | 19c | 68.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed ASTRAL | 65c | 65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed SAW | 48c | 60.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 1,088 | 54.2%590 W · 498 L | +39.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb52b…9646backed ASTRAL | 62c | 53.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 220 | 59.1%130 W · 90 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed ASTRAL | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 807 | 40.3%325 W · 482 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed SAW | 39c | 48.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked SAW | 52c | 42.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…a4edbacked ASTRAL | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +258.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6936…8f48backed ASTRAL | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked SAW | 56c | 25.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 675 | 47.3%319 W · 356 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked ASTRAL | 59c | 20.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: SAW vs ASTRAL - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: SAW vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #3 Play-InASTRAL won
- Counter-Strike: SAW vs ASTRAL - Map 2 WinnerASTRAL won
- Map Handicap: ASTR (-1.5) vs SAW (+1.5)ASTRAL won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.