South American Leagues · resolved market
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5b967cece986739bb0e753cb07d92439efa8ef0d8f0d0bb71bd2ee473d93a65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ab1…b4ecbacked Under | 50c | 2,019$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 53c | 1,629$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.58 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 230 | 57.4%132 W · 98 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 40c | 690.23$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.58 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 60c | 589.53$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.96 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 47c | 315.09$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.7 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 57c | 262.98$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.82 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 36c | 223.27$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.31 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcb…f3afbacked Over | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Over | 46c | 122$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 46c | 108.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…fa81backed Over | 51c | 103.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.34 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a8…22f0backed Over | 46c | 94.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 45c | 92.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 57c | 76.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…dbfdbacked Over | 46c | 63.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 65c | 46.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 58c | 34.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 197 | 61.9%122 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e98…ae20backed Over | 76c | 29.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 47c | 25.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…4f8ebacked Under | 55c | 22.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 2.5this page
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 1.5Over won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 3.5Under won
- Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5)Red Bull Bragantino won
- Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
- Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-2.5)Associação Chapecoense de Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.