MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5e414b32e3fe9908b888ee6c8db4012f0a277f7aa801fec3786a998196adfa1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 41c | 12,686$5,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,433.32 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 60c | 5,779$3,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,466.41 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 2,089$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.94 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Under | 54c | 2,046$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.22 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 61c | 1,642$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.5 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 53c | 1,478$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.64 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 52c | 1,153$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.33 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 19c | 949.4$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.01 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 34c | 911.54$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.61 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 61c | 895.87$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.48 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 39c | 874.3$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.32 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 61c | 810.23$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.24 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 61c | 653.09$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.38 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 61c | 626$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.86 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 66c | 619.95$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.11 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 61c | 486.23$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.6 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 47c | 431.17$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.33 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 61c | 397.79$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.65 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Over | 61c | 371.59$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.67 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 61c | 281.7$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.84 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 62c | 263.18$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.17 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 31c | 197.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.71 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 195.64$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.36 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…a4d5backed Over | 61c | 142.07$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.66 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Over | 61c | 142.07$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.66 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 39c | 96.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 61c | 83.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 19c | 78.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.73 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 43c | 76.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90da…7c0cbacked Under | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…e155backed Over | 61c | 64.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 61c | 50.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Over | 61c | 32.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 61c | 29.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 60c | 24.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…f3f0backed Over | 61c | 24.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda1…7b5ebacked Over | 61c | 22.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 54c | 19.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449e…f0a9backed Over | 62c | 17.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Over | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 2.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.