MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f16af26e420d909bc26964fd587175cc33c72c901561164a9cc203074372353
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Milwaukee Brewers, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 30c | 4,720$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.88 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Houston Astros | 54c | 4,482$2,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,041.82 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 2,172$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.68 | 4,555 | 49.2%2,239 W · 2,316 L | -9.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 1,823$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.28 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Houston Astros | 70c | 1,552$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.6 | 1,738 | 50.4%876 W · 862 L | +57.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Houston Astros | 70c | 1,243$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.15 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 586.04$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.8 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Houston Astros | 60c | 570.27$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.11 | 2,418 | 48.6%1,174 W · 1,244 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 378.08$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 8,484 | 47.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L | +79.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Houston Astros | 70c | 268.8$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 3,231 | 51.2%1,655 W · 1,576 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Houston Astros | 60c | 262.84$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.13 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 252.37$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.01 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 45c | 245.21$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.08 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Houston Astros | 61c | 164.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.9 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 126$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Houston Astros | 64c | 98.53$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Houston Astros | 64c | 98.53$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 64c | 98.53$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 259 | 48.3%125 W · 134 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros | 60c | 70.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 4,534 | 49%2,220 W · 2,314 L | -41.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Houston Astros | 61c | 63.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 471 | 59.4%280 W · 191 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Houston Astros | 60c | 62.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 814 | 55%448 W · 366 L | +24.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Houston Astros | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 5,182 | 54.6%2,829 W · 2,353 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Houston Astros | 60c | 56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 574 | 46.9%269 W · 305 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 34.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 6,309 | 48.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Houston Astros | 62c | 32.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…bb4ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 32.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Houston Astros | 70c | 20.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Houston Astros | 61c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 2.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.