Europa Conference League · resolved market
KF Valur vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6111c4c5c99add5b9cb085a484536e20b53d0b96a57c1ec78278008946f8d6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e78…067ebacked Under | 5c | 23,995$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.75 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 4,530$1,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,885.6 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9618…77e6backed Over | 61c | 3,853$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,502.69 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 41c | 3,771$1,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,528.61 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 38c | 1,823$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.69 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 41c | 1,437$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.14 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Over | 62c | 1,430$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.04 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 36c | 529$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.19 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 41c | 383$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.06 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7245…4b00backed Over | 79c | 360.19$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.87 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 66c | 283.88$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.52 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd033…d4c6backed Under | 4c | 281$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 80c | 136.58$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 33c | 136.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 38c | 118$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 37c | 115$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…eebebacked Under | 23c | 113.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Under | 34c | 107.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c2…529abacked Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae3b…e06ebacked Under | 16c | 80.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 42c | 70.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 42c | 65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…ebd0backed Over | 66c | 58.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 65c | 40.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 106 | 27.4%29 W · 77 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 59c | 23.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- KF Valur vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 1.5this page
- KF Valur vs. FC Nordsjælland: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- KF Valur vs. FC Nordsjælland: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- KF Valur vs. FC Nordsjælland: FC Nordsjælland O/U 1.5Over won
- KF Valur vs. FC Nordsjælland: KF Valur O/U 0.5Under won
- KF Valur vs. FC Nordsjælland: KF Valur O/U 1.5Under won
- KF Valur vs. FC Nordsjælland: KF Valur O/U 2.5Under won
- KF Valur vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 0.5Over won
- KF Valur vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 2.5Under won
- KF Valur vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 3.5Under won
- KF Valur vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Nordsjælland (-1.5)FC Nordsjælland won
- Spread: FC Nordsjælland (-2.5)KF Valur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.