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Europa Conference League · resolved market

Spread: FC Nordsjælland (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
KF Valurof FC Nordsjælland, KF Valur
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,814
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,821

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,814 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4956…e2c7backed KF Valur63c12,857$8,075 inWon+$4,782.554045%18 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed FC Nordsjælland37c5,327$1,969 inLost-$1,968.622,73840.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L-1.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed FC Nordsjælland37c2,027$750 inLost-$749.991,31950.8%670 W · 649 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed FC Nordsjælland38c2,000$750 inLost-$7501,29049.1%633 W · 657 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked FC Nordsjælland38c1,000$380 inLost-$3801,04148%500 W · 541 L+18.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed FC Nordsjælland37c675$250 inLost-$249.751,20047.4%569 W · 631 L-5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed FC Nordsjælland36c424.67$155 inLost-$154.7493341.4%386 W · 547 L-15.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked FC Nordsjælland39c285.59$110 inLost-$110.3877855%428 W · 350 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed FC Nordsjælland37c222$82 inLost-$82.1447342.1%199 W · 274 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed FC Nordsjælland37c180.44$68 inLost-$67.531,79354.8%983 W · 810 L+11.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed FC Nordsjælland37c160.95$60 inLost-$59.582,79534.8%973 W · 1,822 L-86.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfecc…7551backed FC Nordsjælland30c126.67$38 inLost-$381030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe368…e9edbacked FC Nordsjælland33c121.21$40 inLost-$408333.7%28 W · 55 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed KF Valur66c100$66 inWon+$3434142.8%146 W · 195 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked FC Nordsjælland36c90.23$32 inLost-$32.3554353.8%292 W · 251 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed FC Nordsjælland38c79.44$30 inLost-$30.1965549.8%326 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed KF Valur70c53.67$38 inWon+$16.12,43437.3%909 W · 1,525 L-9.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed FC Nordsjælland46c50$23 inLost-$2383733%276 W · 561 L-12.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed FC Nordsjælland36c48.54$17 inLost-$17.4755953.1%297 W · 262 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed FC Nordsjælland36c44.44$16 inLost-$1610344.7%46 W · 57 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed FC Nordsjælland36c38.56$14 inLost-$14.0727737.9%105 W · 172 L-17.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked KF Valur71c30.8$22 inWon+$8.9340844.4%181 W · 227 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.