Europa Conference League · resolved market
KF Valur vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f810aa37dfbd5d8fd6a693a57c33ca1504fb2f48e5e983ddbd69a12c9b94c3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $141,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde31…df79backed Over | 54c | 100,000$53,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,919.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 46c | 20,155$9,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,883.7 | 218 | 40.4%88 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 16,945$7,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,102.13 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 46c | 16,728$7,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,002.87 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…5f61backed Under | 46c | 12,429$5,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,711.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa18c…d792backed Over | 54c | 11,520$6,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,217.56 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Under | 46c | 10,000$4,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,400 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -5.3wins | -0.25per pick | 49cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked Under | 46c | 5,663$2,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,058.16 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x208c…6b98backed Under | 46c | 4,622$2,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,495.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 4,425$2,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,301.58 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 59c | 3,551$2,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.27 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 2,186$1,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.77 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 50c | 2,104$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.26 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 42c | 1,640$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.9 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 51c | 1,630$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.6 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 50c | 1,595$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.75 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Over | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Under | 52c | 1,369$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.26 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 47c | 974.91$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.7 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768b…bf0fbacked Under | 46c | 924.3$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 46c | 900.91$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.49 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 48c | 734.75$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.34 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 47c | 689.11$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.23 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Under | 46c | 652.16$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.17 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 49c | 588.64$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.52 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Under | 46c | 543.47$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.47 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…8148backed Over | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…45cebacked Under | 46c | 497.5$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.65 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 46c | 429.53$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.52 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 46c | 403.1$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.67 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 47c | 394.89$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.84 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 53c | 386.93$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.99 | 182 | 52.7%96 W · 86 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 48c | 360.64$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.32 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 46c | 330$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.2 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 77c | 275.88$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.61 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 46c | 250.27$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.15 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 49c | 238.84$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.98 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb550…2799backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 48c | 163.72$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.06 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 52c | 162.52$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.01 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Under | 46c | 148$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 51c | 147.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 62c | 112.24$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc2…9343backed Under | 57c | 110.3$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…03acbacked Under | 46c | 103.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 51c | 101.57$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 72c | 90.75$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 75c | 78.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 72c | 68.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 73c | 58.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…5e6fbacked Over | 55c | 54.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Under | 46c | 53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Over | 48c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…1098backed Over | 48c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30cf…16e7backed Under | 47c | 44.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1833…cc31backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 43c | 43.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe660…514fbacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0c…4d9cbacked Over | 50c | 41.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 49c | 40.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Under | 46c | 38.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 45c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee92…7ec3backed Under | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…a748backed Over | 50c | 20.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 73c | 20.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Under | 50c | 20.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- KF Valur vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 3.5this page
- KF Valur vs. FC Nordsjælland: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- KF Valur vs. FC Nordsjælland: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- KF Valur vs. FC Nordsjælland: FC Nordsjælland O/U 1.5Over won
- KF Valur vs. FC Nordsjælland: KF Valur O/U 0.5Under won
- KF Valur vs. FC Nordsjælland: KF Valur O/U 1.5Under won
- KF Valur vs. FC Nordsjælland: KF Valur O/U 2.5Under won
- KF Valur vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 0.5Over won
- KF Valur vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 1.5Over won
- KF Valur vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 2.5Under won
- KF Valur vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Nordsjælland (-1.5)FC Nordsjælland won
- Spread: FC Nordsjælland (-2.5)KF Valur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.