CS2 · resolved market
IEM Cologne: Vitality vs. Astralis
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc62a2a5b514a2647e43b97b4e025bba555a6658822aea414b2404025f658eb9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vitalityof Vitality, Astralis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Astralis | 14c | 13,410$1,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,877.37 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Astralis | 14c | 13,000$1,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,833.25 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Astralis | 6c | 3,001$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.25 | 160 | 33.8%54 W · 106 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…e646backed Astralis | 15c | 1,170$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Astralis | 12c | 774.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…68a4backed Astralis | 7c | 755$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 85 | 4.7%4 W · 81 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed Astralis | 23c | 656.46$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Astralis | 14c | 655$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Astralis | 16c | 631.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 524 | 56.3%295 W · 229 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed Astralis | 15c | 508.93$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.34 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Vitality | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Astralis | 10c | 440$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 121 | 31.4%38 W · 83 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Astralis | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Astralis | 7c | 214.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Astralis | 15c | 194.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Astralis | 12c | 170$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Astralis | 13c | 165$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 317 | 35.6%113 W · 204 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…ffb8backed Astralis | 12c | 160$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed Astralis | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Astralis | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Astralis | 15c | 125.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…93aebacked Astralis | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Astralis | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.