Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc680f47845f89d8393c97289ea0efaa410cd9b409c25300e496d72031234bdd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8759…4fe3backed Yes | 6c | 3,510$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 373.8$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.41 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 310.47$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 148.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 130.78$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 126.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 32c | 110.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 110.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 66c | 99.94$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 33c | 86.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 33c | 85.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 83.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 79.56$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa726…0dadbacked No | 67c | 75.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfad2…3887backed No | 68c | 73.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 68c | 68.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 30c | 65.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 61c | 64.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 61.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 35c | 57.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 69c | 53.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 23c | 51.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fab…1ca3backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 32c | 46.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…c62ebacked Yes | 33c | 41.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 35c | 41.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 39.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 33c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d62…72cdbacked No | 68c | 34.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 64c | 34.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 64c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 33.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 37c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 68c | 28.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 25.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 66c | 21.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 70c | 20.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 70c | 18.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 66c | 17.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or higher on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.