Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44cda676e9b514aadd477142d56695688ba9fa36e22be313906ecab2065258ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8759…4fe3backed Yes | 46c | 325.82$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.51 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 12c | 245.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 56c | 226.63$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.91 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 55c | 212.51$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…8c4dbacked Yes | 56c | 192.1$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.43 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 74c | 179.7$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 42c | 172.32$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.6 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 29c | 170$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 23c | 169.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 20c | 153.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 143.93$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 121$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.18 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 116$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0e…b14abacked Yes | 43c | 115.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 106.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 99.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 43c | 95.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 54c | 94.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 93.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 88.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 79.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 74.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 38c | 74.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 70c | 74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 43c | 70.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 43c | 67.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 62.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 47c | 53.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 41c | 53.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…c62ebacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x521e…a47bbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 46c | 43.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 54c | 42.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 39.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 53c | 38.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 55c | 37.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 52c | 36.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 60c | 33.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 33.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 58c | 31.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 58c | 29.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 67c | 29.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 57c | 29.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 61c | 28.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 25.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…c430backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…f3f0backed Yes | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8db…458dbacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 80c | 24.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 61c | 24.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 57c | 21.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 58c | 19.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 59c | 18.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 65c | 18.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 62c | 17.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or higher on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.