Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FK Vardar Skopje vs. Rīga FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6dc31ef630eae025087bbeda11050d88aeacf0ba5db98f5da84b252bdfa9b96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 45c | 991.81$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.43 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…36ddbacked No | 74c | 675.78$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 71cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb29…947abacked Yes | 26c | 662.38$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.22 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 55c | 627.65$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.16 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 36c | 550$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.7 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 63c | 447$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.11 | 192 | 50.5%97 W · 95 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…719abacked Yes | 12c | 395.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 74c | 305$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.19 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 51c | 299.56$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.24 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed Yes | 49c | 289$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 43c | 204.95$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc37…bac6backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 19c | 199.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 74c | 179.56$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…98cdbacked Yes | 27c | 177.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 72c | 163.97$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…45f6backed No | 73c | 144.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01db…2922backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 131.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 70c | 130.59$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…dba6backed Yes | 13c | 123.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23b5…97e1backed Yes | 32c | 120$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 27c | 109.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed No | 65c | 98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed No | 74c | 94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6374…6408backed Yes | 30c | 94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 24c | 92.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 67c | 84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 59c | 71.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 61c | 61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 111 | 68.5%76 W · 35 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe01b…fa88backed Yes | 60c | 46.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe331…0163backed No | 57c | 43.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +46%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 40c | 36.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…bbd2backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…9568backed No | 72c | 31.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 25.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x920e…6fd2backed Yes | 62c | 24.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 80c | 13.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK Vardar Skopje vs. Rīga FC end in a draw?this page
- Will FK Vardar Skopje win on 2026-07-22?No won
- Will Rīga FC win on 2026-07-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.