NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Nets: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc706552c8b97acba1845fb41c45da01d8ef47313a26e3eb4898f76adc2661b25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 52c | 19,921$10,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,521.5 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 11,368$5,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,415.09 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 47c | 2,524$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.27 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 2,515$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.38 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 47c | 2,016$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.52 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Over | 51c | 1,685$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.35 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 1,579$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 52c | 1,040$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.8 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 47c | 946.81$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x281d…814fbacked Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 48c | 300$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f55…535dbacked Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Over | 54c | 179.7$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.66 | 173 | 56.6%98 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 56c | 169$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.36 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91b2…0566backed Under | 47c | 47.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x557f…efa5backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x146c…eb70backed Over | 56c | 24.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…7e70backed Over | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Nets: O/U 228.5this page
- Cavaliers vs. NetsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Nets: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Nets: O/U 226.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Nets: O/U 227.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Nets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Nets: O/U 230.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Nets won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Nets won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.