MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc71b774694664eaa2e01667526fc80002a8b82fbf7755818ca27cce276798910
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 44c | 14,726$6,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,255.63 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 60c | 9,237$5,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,571.04 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 53c | 6,117$3,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,238.91 | 1,681 | 50.1%842 W · 839 L | -22.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Under | 55c | 2,642$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.21 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 1,830$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.12 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 49c | 1,394$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.47 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 4c | 1,129$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 54c | 1,073$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.18 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…969ebacked Over | 53c | 908.73$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.52 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 710.93$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.68 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Over | 55c | 696.4$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.02 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 49c | 664.83$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.96 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 42c | 527.66$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.36 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 47c | 445.22$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.97 | 296 | 47.3%140 W · 156 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Under | 39c | 370.54$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.03 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 46c | 269.41$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.48 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 53c | 188.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 45c | 151.24$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.18 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed0…b5b8backed Under | 45c | 151.24$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.18 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 45c | 151.24$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.18 | 634 | 54.3%344 W · 290 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8a…e4cdbacked Over | 52c | 145.3$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 58c | 144.47$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.19 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 47c | 143.88$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.56 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 137.26$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.87 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 48c | 125.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.18 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 47c | 113.77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…ab7cbacked Under | 62c | 107.49$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 48c | 102.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 24c | 93.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.9 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +11.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 45c | 85.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Over | 51c | 84.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Under | 49c | 63.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 37c | 60.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 47c | 57.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 45c | 55.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked Under | 50c | 47.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6e…6cedbacked Over | 47c | 41.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 45c | 41.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Under | 47c | 39.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 59c | 39.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…3d00backed Over | 68c | 34.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Over | 54c | 34.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 280 | 53.9%151 W · 129 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 54c | 32.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 45c | 32.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…abdfbacked Over | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…16d1backed Under | 49c | 23.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.