MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73aca3be9217680cf6ed264045a3f337c1c1eebcf68dd409da04fc3ba79d35e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 11,861$7,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,310.45 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Houston Astros | 37c | 8,335$3,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,047.77 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Houston Astros | 36c | 1,603$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.96 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Houston Astros | 36c | 1,202$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.72 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Houston Astros | 36c | 338.74$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.95 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Houston Astros | 36c | 280.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Houston Astros | 37c | 169.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Seattle Mariners | 63c | 166.19$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Seattle Mariners | 62c | 155$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Houston Astros | 38c | 134.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…522fbacked Houston Astros | 36c | 58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Houston Astros | 36c | 40.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Houston Astros | 38c | 38.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcac9…47a9backed Houston Astros | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Houston Astros | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.