MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee6ffd0386efb4b910e6c08d10887f5a4a1b88bd12fc681343e6c0d653a217a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x661f…098abacked Houston Astros | 57c | 8,889$5,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,067 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 6,084$2,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,467.64 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 5,252$2,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,888.5 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe80…0784backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 4,661$2,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,637.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…36b0backed Houston Astros | 55c | 1,821$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.77 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 41c | 1,594$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.1 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Houston Astros | 46c | 1,291$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.6 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Houston Astros | 56c | 1,264$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.95 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Houston Astros | 55c | 1,062$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.24 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Houston Astros | 55c | 1,061$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.8 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Houston Astros | 55c | 955.37$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.45 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Seattle Mariners | 79c | 676.26$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.84 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Houston Astros | 59c | 667.2$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.65 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf331…ca0bbacked Houston Astros | 45c | 429.78$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.4 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 299.13$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.49 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 296.72$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.2 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros | 56c | 206.3$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.53 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Seattle Mariners | 56c | 189.84$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.74 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Houston Astros | 22c | 185$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros | 23c | 176.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 169.88$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.53 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 46c | 159.92$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 144.44$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…bdc1backed Houston Astros | 55c | 99.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cc…3132backed Houston Astros | 59c | 66.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Houston Astros | 21c | 58.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Houston Astros | 55c | 55.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 53.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Houston Astros | 56c | 52.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Houston Astros | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Houston Astros | 56c | 43.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Houston Astros | 39c | 41.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Houston Astros | 30c | 37.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Seattle Mariners | 64c | 37.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Houston Astros | 34c | 34.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Houston Astros | 32c | 32.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Seattle Mariners | 67c | 32.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 31.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Houston Astros | 34c | 30.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Houston Astros | 42c | 29.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Houston Astros | 45c | 26.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 26.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…abdfbacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 25.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 23.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Houston Astros | 60c | 17.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-4.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.