Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs REKONIX (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7208a8308a8684010dc65a3a997a36b9e1231ac54b7d19280595daf4ea23eb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- REKONIXof OG, REKONIX
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x860f…9402backed OG | 0c | 93,331$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed REKONIX | 71c | 1,245$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.77 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed OG | 30c | 1,001$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…0eaebacked OG | 59c | 733.99$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.06 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked OG | 28c | 399.86$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.96 | 325 | 48.9%159 W · 166 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed OG | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7029…1136backed REKONIX | 69c | 343.5$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.49 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed OG | 31c | 304.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.55 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5480…b38cbacked REKONIX | 68c | 197$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.79 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked REKONIX | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x924b…4aeebacked OG | 36c | 138.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd02a…4771backed REKONIX | 69c | 134.78$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked OG | 29c | 134.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…c005backed REKONIX | 67c | 122.2$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…c192backed REKONIX | 41c | 109.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.82 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b77…6ba1backed OG | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked REKONIX | 46c | 96.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.76 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed REKONIX | 55c | 85.73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked OG | 22c | 84.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…8be9backed REKONIX | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 253 | 54.5%138 W · 115 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73c3…fd98backed REKONIX | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd82…6a10backed REKONIX | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 47cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked REKONIX | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2e…9d98backed REKONIX | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked REKONIX | 48c | 68.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked REKONIX | 69c | 61.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked REKONIX | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked OG | 65c | 56.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…443bbacked OG | 55c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed REKONIX | 68c | 35.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed OG | 39c | 30.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed REKONIX | 66c | 30.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed REKONIX | 42c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed REKONIX | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 145 | 66.2%96 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed REKONIX | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs REKONIX (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsOG won
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 1 WinnerOG won
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 WinnerREKONIX won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.