Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fa66c39f9f22cae51303fdb984aae22e4f5bd0e50acf1c6ecfa4c6f1ff29fe9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Over | 40c | 682.92$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.71 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Under | 59c | 349.99$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.5 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…0eaebacked Under | 59c | 274.2$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.78 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked Under | 65c | 125.66$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.68 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Under | 62c | 114.25$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 51c | 92.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Under | 50c | 88.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe24b…5142backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +8.6wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 52c | 75.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Under | 54c | 72.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Over | 47c | 65.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…98abbacked Over | 49c | 59.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 155 | 46.5%72 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eba…cb3dbacked Over | 46c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Over | 35c | 39.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Under | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Under | 55c | 34.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0076…b1b6backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 43 | 79.1%34 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Under | 67c | 18.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsOG won
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 1 WinnerOG won
- Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 WinnerREKONIX won
- Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs REKONIX (+1.5)REKONIX won
- Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.