South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CF Monterrey (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7215488785233de49094f34364935977428d14c0e04994a5a48a3b3c813a160
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CF Monterreyof CF Monterrey, Querétaro FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,073 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x036c…178dbacked Querétaro FC | 57c | 26,980$15,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,381.78 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed CF Monterrey | 42c | 20,722$8,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,979.32 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb15…0f02backed CF Monterrey | 43c | 6,047$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,446.51 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Querétaro FC | 64c | 4,524$2,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,873.31 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…4ef0backed CF Monterrey | 43c | 3,533$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,013.56 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked CF Monterrey | 26c | 1,249$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.47 | 200 | 22.5%45 W · 155 L | -13.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed CF Monterrey | 39c | 1,200$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Querétaro FC | 64c | 859.59$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.22 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Querétaro FC | 61c | 858.34$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.23 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Querétaro FC | 59c | 530.06$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.2 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked CF Monterrey | 39c | 330$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.25 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Querétaro FC | 61c | 279.85$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.61 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked CF Monterrey | 36c | 199.96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.97 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Querétaro FC | 64c | 187.62$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.83 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed CF Monterrey | 43c | 187$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.59 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked CF Monterrey | 42c | 170$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed CF Monterrey | 38c | 138$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f49…b482backed CF Monterrey | 43c | 134.88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked CF Monterrey | 50c | 108.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 724 | 50.6%366 W · 358 L | -24.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Querétaro FC | 58c | 102.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed CF Monterrey | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked CF Monterrey | 42c | 85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked CF Monterrey | 42c | 85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed CF Monterrey | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 404 | 42.1%170 W · 234 L | -12.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…031ebacked Querétaro FC | 63c | 54.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Querétaro FC | 63c | 49.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed CF Monterrey | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Querétaro FC | 65c | 42.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked CF Monterrey | 43c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…d5b8backed CF Monterrey | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea9…469bbacked CF Monterrey | 60c | 38.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked CF Monterrey | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed CF Monterrey | 35c | 36.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…2995backed Querétaro FC | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Querétaro FC | 75c | 30.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ec…18d8backed Querétaro FC | 63c | 27.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…ceb2backed Querétaro FC | 60c | 24.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Querétaro FC | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed Querétaro FC | 63c | 20.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 114 | 61.4%70 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd23…f7eabacked Querétaro FC | 63c | 18.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…b8d3backed Querétaro FC | 61c | 18.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Querétaro FC | 59c | 17.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd6…05cbbacked Querétaro FC | 64c | 17.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…7191backed Querétaro FC | 65c | 16.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CF Monterrey (-1.5)this page
- CF Monterrey vs. Querétaro FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Monterrey vs. Querétaro FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- CF Monterrey vs. Querétaro FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- CF Monterrey vs. Querétaro FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Querétaro FC (-1.5)CF Monterrey won
- Spread: Querétaro FC (-2.5)CF Monterrey won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.