Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc74c6b87a8e4c67cfe812973d51311312cd56372a9c149294776509e2b12eb26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 46c | 999.17$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 40c | 820.65$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.23 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 54c | 808.07$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.69 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 33c | 526.17$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.6 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 57c | 357.65$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.44 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 334.63$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 62c | 227.82$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.51 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 48c | 226.95$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…bde6backed Yes | 46c | 208.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.33 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 43c | 182.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 164.42$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 47c | 141.49$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 9c | 133$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 51c | 127.47$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.46 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 49c | 120.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 45c | 107.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed No | 52c | 100.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 53c | 99.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 48c | 95.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 89.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 51c | 87.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 44c | 84.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 47c | 77.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed No | 65c | 74.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 45c | 73.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 61c | 72.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 48c | 69.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 43c | 66.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 51c | 63.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…2b8ebacked No | 60c | 54.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 55c | 51.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 47c | 49.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 44c | 47.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked Yes | 47c | 46.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 54c | 43.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3630…7d24backed Yes | 44c | 43.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed Yes | 46c | 40.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 47c | 40.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 52c | 40.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 55c | 37.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…3d5dbacked Yes | 49c | 37.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 49c | 37.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe536…41b6backed Yes | 44c | 36.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 53c | 36.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ef…813ebacked No | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 35.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed Yes | 40c | 35.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 50c | 31.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…66a5backed Yes | 48c | 30.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 52c | 29.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 51c | 29.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 45c | 28.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…76e5backed No | 58c | 28.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be4…500fbacked No | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…b14fbacked No | 51c | 27.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34bc…ffa1backed No | 51c | 26.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 53c | 26.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 48c | 25.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 53c | 25.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x416f…18d8backed No | 51c | 25.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1c…5b1cbacked No | 58c | 24.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 50c | 23.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 53c | 23.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 55c | 22.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c8…e547backed No | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 54c | 20.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef7e…aee8backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb989…9f16backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…128abacked No | 66c | 19.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 58c | 19.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 54c | 19.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 65c | 17.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.