Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9f9129da5c95792e512bd60380ecaca03354bccee44aac40c37e947967bbc3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 41c | 421.65$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.56 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 21c | 381.58$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.64 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked No | 6c | 314.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 231.87$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 220.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 8c | 211.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 38c | 185.37$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.13 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 178.13$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 29c | 176.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.97 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed Yes | 66c | 151.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 143.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.41 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked No | 10c | 100.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 29c | 97.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.31 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 88.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 48c | 82.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 23c | 71.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 35c | 67.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 75c | 66.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 66c | 65.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 76c | 64.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 63.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 65c | 63.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 34c | 60.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 73c | 60.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 66c | 58.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 65c | 56.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 25c | 55.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 53c | 53.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 51c | 53.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 27c | 50.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 44.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 62c | 41.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed Yes | 27c | 37.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 53c | 35.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked No | 65c | 35.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 32.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 75c | 29.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 67c | 28.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc579…57bfbacked Yes | 59c | 25.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…3257backed No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed Yes | 75c | 19.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 19.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 75c | 18.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 72c | 17.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 74c | 15.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b39…51d6backed No | 66c | 15.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 67cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.