TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,809
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,907

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,809 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes60c947.53$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.2730919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No32c564.21$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.8412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No59c412.14$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.458,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60ad…545dbacked No7c399.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.771729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+89.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c317.81$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.6417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes43c292.8$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.731,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes68c284.5$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.898127.2%22 W · 59 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes75c271.09$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.95,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes53c249.9$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.4540025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c226.96$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.382,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes56c223.63$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.418643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No29c191.16$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2569520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No17c157.67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.181,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2006…7e1bbacked No71c128.23$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.042236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-51.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No35c126.47$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.744,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed Yes62c123.23$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9718668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1ccf…aa5dbacked No46c121.54$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd399…4517backed Yes66c116.49$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.944161%25 W · 16 L+6.0wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+41.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes49c114.49$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.273129%9 W · 22 L-5.8wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-43.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x993c…8f7abacked Yes49c113.34$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.493046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes53c111.07$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.121,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes41c100.83$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.3663538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92eb…9668backed Yes48c99.55$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7610936.7%40 W · 69 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes50c99.18$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.1920631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes50c95.64$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.821,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No28c90$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.52,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes46c89.98$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9719160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No40c82.67$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xbb3a…8daabacked No64c82.66$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.275756.1%32 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes38c82.42$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.827,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2354…fab1backed Yes64c82.08$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2214062.9%88 W · 52 L+11.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes46c79.97$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5525239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes45c77.2$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.2274338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No66c74.49$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0381756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes48c71.43$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8145148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x13e0…7465backed Yes39c66.5$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.335233%116 W · 236 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes68c63.75$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2889544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5eb8…207ebacked Yes62c62.02$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.51384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick64cpaid+30.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes49c59.96$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.560739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f01…4c3abacked No63c58.86$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3516159%95 W · 66 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked No56c58.69$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6746240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes32c58.45$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.479,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ba5…8434backed Yes39c57.22$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.752343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes41c56.49$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0598236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c66…f4d3backed No69c53.97$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2424770%173 W · 74 L+1.0wins0.00per pick70cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00e0…3059backed Yes41c52.97$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.43475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+107.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes38c50.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.629747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3032041.9%134 W · 186 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9791…a14abacked No51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.519461.9%120 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes61c49.24$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0331442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes52c48.7$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.444945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed No50c47.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7515435.7%55 W · 99 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x991a…3697backed No68c46$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.28666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+66.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa96d…7553backed No43c45.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8798…45efbacked Yes43c43.86$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257736.4%28 W · 49 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No69c42.66$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4470770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98e9…2ea5backed No62c40.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9917855.6%99 W · 79 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf71a…ac2fbacked Yes60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162544%11 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf8…760bbacked Yes48c39.51$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f2f…4178backed No59c38.75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.96540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5d1…7ab7backed No68c37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.16742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick67cpaid-44.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99b7…177fbacked No54c35.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.254035%14 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes37c35.01$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1993837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9283…e1bfbacked Yes40c34.95$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.842944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c3…5928backed Yes45c34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.71414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-72.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes39c33.49$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.333,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b1c…bd99backed No60c32.03$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.13743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd849…6d86backed No59c30.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.772250%11 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+85.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.111956.3%67 W · 52 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c64…be43backed No63c29.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5414461.8%89 W · 55 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafe0…1b89backed Yes41c28.71$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.971560%9 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+43.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked No44c28.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4648331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes49c27.81$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0628648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ebd…e0cabacked Yes38c27.15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.831435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfac5…6b03backed Yes60c26.69$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+29.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38ba…bcf9backed No61c25.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.831330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-41.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked No68c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1772837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86a5…5842backed No50c24.93$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb17…0cd7backed Yes61c23.63$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.223050%15 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No58c22.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2293734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes61c20.63$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9821547.4%102 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5127…6f96backed No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1412374%91 W · 32 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes52c19.66$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5383459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes55c19.49$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8467633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a09…263dbacked No67c19.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.857057.1%40 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ed…b814backed No63c17.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.362458.3%14 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.