Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc760287e0265aafe92b344b1776f7075608acc741f011dcd38aa7679b77fba66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 60c | 947.53$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.27 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 564.21$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 412.14$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…545dbacked No | 7c | 399.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 317.81$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 43c | 292.8$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.73 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes | 68c | 284.5$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.89 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 75c | 271.09$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 53c | 249.9$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.45 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.96$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 56c | 223.63$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.41 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 29c | 191.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 17c | 157.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2006…7e1bbacked No | 71c | 128.23$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.04 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 35c | 126.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 62c | 123.23$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccf…aa5dbacked No | 46c | 121.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…4517backed Yes | 66c | 116.49$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes | 49c | 114.49$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…8f7abacked Yes | 49c | 113.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 53c | 111.07$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 41c | 100.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 48c | 99.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 50c | 99.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 50c | 95.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 28c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 46c | 89.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 82.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 64c | 82.66$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 82.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 64c | 82.08$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 46c | 79.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 45c | 77.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 66c | 74.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 48c | 71.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 39c | 66.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 68c | 63.75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb8…207ebacked Yes | 62c | 62.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 49c | 59.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 63c | 58.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked No | 56c | 58.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 58.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba5…8434backed Yes | 39c | 57.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 41c | 56.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 69c | 53.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…3059backed Yes | 41c | 52.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +107.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 38c | 50.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 61c | 49.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 52c | 48.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 50c | 47.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x991a…3697backed No | 68c | 46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96d…7553backed No | 43c | 45.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 43c | 43.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 42.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 62c | 40.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…ac2fbacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf8…760bbacked Yes | 48c | 39.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2f…4178backed No | 59c | 38.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d1…7ab7backed No | 68c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99b7…177fbacked No | 54c | 35.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 37c | 35.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9283…e1bfbacked Yes | 40c | 34.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c3…5928backed Yes | 45c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 33.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…bd99backed No | 60c | 32.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd849…6d86backed No | 59c | 30.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 63c | 29.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe0…1b89backed Yes | 41c | 28.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 44c | 28.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 49c | 27.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebd…e0cabacked Yes | 38c | 27.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac5…6b03backed Yes | 60c | 26.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ba…bcf9backed No | 61c | 25.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a5…5842backed No | 50c | 24.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…0cd7backed Yes | 61c | 23.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 58c | 22.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 61c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 52c | 19.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 55c | 19.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 67c | 19.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ed…b814backed No | 63c | 17.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C or higher on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.