Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97dd89a38059ff61c91b35ed5c03f54cc98fb37dc8472cbb03795816025af008
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 0c | 12,792$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes | 32c | 546.82$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.74 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 29c | 485.86$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.62 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 408.35$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 391.06$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.61 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 67c | 319.97$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.19 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked No | 65c | 314.34$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.14 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 66c | 303.02$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 237.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 232.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 30c | 216.57$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ce…3af1backed Yes | 33c | 211.61$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.37 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked Yes | 28c | 197.14$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 73c | 184.86$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 32c | 176.32$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…3c5abacked Yes | 24c | 152.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 149.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…d079backed Yes | 27c | 149.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 28c | 149.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 146$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 141.84$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 26c | 139.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 137.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa3…0d65backed No | 78c | 129.02$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 73c | 127.21$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 37c | 126.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 125.7$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 72c | 121$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c3…5928backed Yes | 29c | 120.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 76c | 108.86$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92ba…cf4dbacked Yes | 35c | 107.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 26c | 105.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 103.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 101.56$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 19c | 99.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 69c | 99.21$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 25c | 97.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…8f7abacked No | 70c | 90.92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 33c | 88.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 74c | 85.12$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 32c | 84.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 72c | 80.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 68c | 78.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 77.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 74c | 76.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 62c | 75.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 69c | 69.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 73c | 69.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed No | 77c | 68.64$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 24c | 68.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 67.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 32c | 66.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 65.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 28c | 65.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 22c | 64.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 76c | 64.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…95f4backed Yes | 28c | 63.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 75c | 62.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Yes | 32c | 61.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 72c | 60.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 24c | 59.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 24c | 56.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 28c | 56.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 27c | 53.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 27c | 53.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 31c | 52.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes | 29c | 50.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…c045backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 22c | 49.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 75c | 49.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 23c | 49.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 23c | 49.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xde08…b228backed No | 78c | 48.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 65c | 46.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8740…bf4bbacked Yes | 25c | 44.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 26c | 43.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 66c | 43.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 26c | 42.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 27c | 42.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 36c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba5…8434backed Yes | 35c | 40.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 67c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 73c | 39.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f44…658cbacked Yes | 29c | 38.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed No | 77c | 38.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafe0…1b89backed Yes | 30c | 33.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 72c | 33.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 71c | 31.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4850…ab3bbacked No | 76c | 29.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 69c | 28.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed No | 75c | 28.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 73c | 27.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 26.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 25.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 69c | 22.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C or higher on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.