TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,370
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,202

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,370 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes0c12,792$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7947136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes32c546.82$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.748127.2%22 W · 59 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes29c485.86$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.6245238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes21c408.35$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.758,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No72c391.06$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.612,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed No67c319.97$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.194963.3%31 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eb9…901ebacked No65c314.34$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.145766.7%38 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No66c303.02$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.032,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes25c237.67$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.391,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes8c232.8$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.665,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes30c216.57$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.18643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x71ce…3af1backed Yes33c211.61$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.373522.9%8 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-54%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb3a…8daabacked Yes28c197.14$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.835756.1%32 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed No73c184.86$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6319148.2%92 W · 99 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes32c176.32$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.429747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9410…3c5abacked Yes24c152.89$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6960%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes16c149.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x693c…d079backed Yes27c149.94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.482839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf306…2155backed Yes28c149.69$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.765733.3%19 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes25c146$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.139,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No73c141.84$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.664,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed Yes26c139.3$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9618668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c137.23$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa3…0d65backed No78c129.02$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.393675%27 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No73c127.21$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1352571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba1…2769backed Yes37c126.56$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8510640.6%43 W · 63 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No75c125.7$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No72c121$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3497570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c3…5928backed Yes29c120.76$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.481414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-72.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No76c108.86$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8727376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92ba…cf4dbacked Yes35c107.53$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.631662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes26c105.69$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.625239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes26c103.12$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.27,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No74c101.56$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4786173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes19c99.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.540025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5407…dbc0backed No69c99.21$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7616764.1%107 W · 60 L-13.7wins-0.08per pick72cpaid-12.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes25c97.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.373225%8 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x993c…8f7abacked No70c90.92$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.23046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes33c88.73$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1563538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2490…11a3backed No74c85.12$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.327061.4%43 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes32c84.23$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7830919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No72c80.34$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2126566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No68c78.57$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8869520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes25c77.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.213,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No74c76.89$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.916575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No62c75.99$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8881756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfe6…1bfabacked No69c69.69$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2611741%48 W · 69 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-38%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No73c69.4$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7321676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed No77c68.64$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0720631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x13e0…7465backed Yes24c68.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4535233%116 W · 236 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No72c67.69$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes32c66.73$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1821068.6%144 W · 66 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No75c65.35$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6342976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes28c65.03$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8989544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes22c64.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.351,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8f6…85e9backed No76c64.27$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.488067.5%54 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…95f4backed Yes28c63.91$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b7…8030backed No75c62.82$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9712564.8%81 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d1c…f13cbacked Yes32c61.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.72955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No72c60.47$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9327167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes24c59.87$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4131442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes24c56.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.411,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes28c56.12$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7174338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes27c53.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.827037.1%26 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6de…9452backed Yes27c53.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.558428.6%24 W · 60 L+0.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes31c52.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1659125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes29c50.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9718650.5%94 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6508…c045backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.560739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes27c49.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.516234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes33c49.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2572837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05c8…092abacked Yes22c49.93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9836123%83 W · 278 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No75c49.82$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2818272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes23c49.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3241046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked Yes23c49.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.193734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xde08…b228backed No78c48.72$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.873366.7%22 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No65c46.2$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1770770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8740…bf4bbacked Yes25c44.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.06425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8798…45efbacked Yes26c43.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.117736.4%28 W · 49 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf05a…d78fbacked No66c43.13$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6612670.6%89 W · 37 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes26c42.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2649854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes27c42.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.265043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes36c42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1223463.7%149 W · 85 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ba5…8434backed Yes35c40.07$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.032343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No67c39.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.21,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes30c39.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.816548.5%80 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf021…245ebacked No73c39.05$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4211664.7%75 W · 41 L-8.2wins-0.07per pick72cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f44…658cbacked Yes29c38.49$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+63.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…9936backed No77c38.03$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7110059%59 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafe0…1b89backed Yes30c33.88$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.231560%9 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+43.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7f7b…bc29backed No72c33.63$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3214666.4%97 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No71c31.12$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0248672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7ce…7f30backed No63c29.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.116065.6%105 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4850…ab3bbacked No76c29.06$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.111650%8 W · 8 L-3.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-17.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf55f…8e92backed No69c28.08$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7816548.5%80 W · 85 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2467…2650backed No75c28.06$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.018877.3%68 W · 20 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x87a2…2250backed No73c27.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4117066.5%113 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No69c26.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.142,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No68c25.73$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.242,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26ef…9808backed No69c22.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.929277.2%71 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.