Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dfde2b64681ffe72d91e30022ee9b0f5919db4d69102cde9d413b10d3f568fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 20c | 2,759$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.82 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 2c | 703.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 424.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes | 13c | 343.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 17c | 299.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 264.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…fa45backed Yes | 14c | 251.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf0…d2b3backed No | 79c | 246.53$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -59%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 17c | 239.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 17c | 237.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 16c | 230.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 18c | 194.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 19c | 182.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 175.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddb…4b77backed Yes | 18c | 124.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 14c | 118.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 22c | 115.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…8f7abacked Yes | 12c | 111.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 93.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed No | 79c | 88.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 80.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…ac2fbacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 78c | 69.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 21c | 66.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 25c | 66.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…0cd7backed Yes | 21c | 66.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 23c | 65.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 22c | 63.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…a59bbacked Yes | 21c | 63.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 61.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…eed5backed Yes | 23c | 60.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 22c | 57.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 19c | 55.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 21c | 53.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 27c | 46.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 77c | 45.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 79c | 39.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 37.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd27…ca0abacked No | 79c | 36.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 68c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ed…b814backed No | 78c | 32.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 78c | 29.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 28.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…95c4backed No | 80c | 27.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 26.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 80c | 25.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd849…6d86backed No | 76c | 23.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 80c | 20.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 76c | 17.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 76c | 15.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb8…9b79backed No | 76c | 15.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 79c | 13.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 76c | 13.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C or higher on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.