Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc786f1943eed46859865c6da0618a32bcbc5ff3de8e7ff7990a59a4504b64f71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,607 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23f7…d5e9backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…83ccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,666$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 55 | 0%0 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 7c | 1,350$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,168$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.52 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 8c | 721.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 15c | 627.4$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.62 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 8c | 596.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 29c | 513.63$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.9 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 20c | 438.14$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.49 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 437.97$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 67c | 328.84$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.54 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 8c | 324.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 80c | 306.5$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.33 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…d343backed Yes | 30c | 300.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…1705backed Yes | 15c | 290.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 15c | 269.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 42c | 238$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 231.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 15c | 224.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 20c | 224.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 212$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 17c | 195.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 15c | 180$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 65c | 175.17$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 19c | 161.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 159.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 20c | 157.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 8c | 156.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x431c…12ecbacked Yes | 18c | 153.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +159.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…d44cbacked Yes | 22c | 146.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 9c | 141.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 18c | 138.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…a939backed Yes | 38c | 133.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…abb2backed No | 61c | 130.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 31c | 129.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…68a1backed Yes | 39c | 129.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 12c | 129.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 120.13$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 17c | 116.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 25c | 100.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 66c | 96.84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 23c | 93.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2150…581bbacked Yes | 24c | 93.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…8e67backed Yes | 36c | 90.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…ff13backed Yes | 30c | 87.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 84.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 15c | 83.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 77c | 78.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 40c | 75.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 36c | 75.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…4415backed Yes | 40c | 74.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb68…ac20backed No | 67c | 71.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…ce09backed Yes | 34c | 71.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…abccbacked Yes | 30c | 70.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 68.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 65.58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 57.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 43c | 55.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 38c | 50.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 50.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5c…7cf7backed Yes | 31c | 48.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 39c | 46.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 68c | 44.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf484…bf13backed No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 76cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 37c | 41.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…c6f2backed No | 69c | 38.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 34c | 34.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99d2…7c81backed Yes | 36c | 34.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 37c | 33.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6f…f5f0backed Yes | 31c | 32.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 31.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b5…1225backed No | 65c | 30.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 70c | 28.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc45…6acebacked Yes | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd26d…2ad6backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f88…317bbacked No | 71c | 24.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…6e7cbacked No | 65c | 24.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 65c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…a3d5backed No | 65c | 17.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 71c | 17.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 66c | 16.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C or below on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.