Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c017f6ea8adc1c625aee982e772d75d7a506a971a31f02818b3566da3f41cae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,756 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 10c | 811.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 28c | 738.15$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.63 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 65c | 685.17$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.52 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 51c | 556.15$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.57 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 22c | 441.01$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.26 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 35c | 424.36$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.64 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 323.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 19c | 312.61$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.15 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 31c | 295$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 52c | 280.61$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.57 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…ce09backed Yes | 45c | 276.87$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.33 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 35c | 274$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 10c | 267.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 7c | 266.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 49c | 245.58$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.71 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…d343backed No | 71c | 233.61$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.78 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 7c | 222.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x794c…fa17backed No | 65c | 220.87$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 26c | 212.38$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.43 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 212$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.51 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 50c | 209.43$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.94 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes | 31c | 206.31$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.56 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 15c | 204.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.94 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 39c | 203.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.63 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 32c | 199.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.99 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 39c | 199.58$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.3 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…1705backed Yes | 22c | 195.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.59 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 194.56$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 71c | 183.59$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.6 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd9…c2e2backed Yes | 8c | 174.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +224.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 26c | 167.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.6 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 166.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.62 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 154.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.96 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 15c | 136.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.92 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 127.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…1c76backed Yes | 24c | 127.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.78 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 9c | 125.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 25c | 117.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.61 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed Yes | 13c | 112$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.49 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 33c | 105.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.34 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 31c | 104.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 11c | 104.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014f…ea08backed No | 71c | 100.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.71 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 22c | 99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.22 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 20c | 98.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.93 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…65fdbacked Yes | 49c | 90.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 21c | 86.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.81 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 13c | 86.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.27 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 14c | 85.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98c3…6ca1backed Yes | 26c | 83.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 18c | 80.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…66f2backed Yes | 21c | 79.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 19c | 79.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.11 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 75.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked Yes | 34c | 72.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…abccbacked Yes | 19c | 69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…8e67backed Yes | 23c | 66.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.18 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 25c | 61.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 50.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x94b5…1225backed No | 74c | 49.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…108ebacked Yes | 23c | 46.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 28c | 44.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 47c | 41.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 26c | 39.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 38.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 28c | 35.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe683…5578backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…240ebacked Yes | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…abb2backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 66c | 22.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 79c | 19.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 71c | 17.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 79c | 14.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C or below on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.