Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b0469b9964a711a13782a9382b9fd0ccf679d3743495d809f3e59931b1fc484
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,466 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 7c | 2,030$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.13 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 24c | 920.95$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.3 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 17c | 652.28$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.93 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 17c | 524.55$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.05 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…abb2backed Yes | 8c | 492.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 15c | 450.23$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…d343backed No | 69c | 398.01$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.01 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 22c | 369.94$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.68 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 18c | 356.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21e3…c33ebacked Yes | 61c | 332.67$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 9c | 326.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 306.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 15c | 289.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Yes | 11c | 279.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 24c | 271.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 15c | 265$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 16c | 263.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 13c | 237$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 67c | 230.32$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.95 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 74c | 214.98$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 212$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 195.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 48c | 184.3$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.62 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 15c | 180.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 11c | 180.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…ce09backed Yes | 44c | 176.96$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.52 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 22c | 169.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…8622backed Yes | 63c | 159.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 10c | 145.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 10c | 144.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 8c | 128.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe683…5578backed No | 40c | 114.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…ffeebacked Yes | 13c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 51c | 107.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 15c | 101.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 56c | 88.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…63e0backed Yes | 18c | 82.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 39c | 79.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed Yes | 39c | 76.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 61c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 25c | 73.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 52c | 71.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…65fdbacked Yes | 37c | 70.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 46c | 65.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…2be0backed No | 63c | 63.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 57.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 41c | 49.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked No | 67c | 49.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 32c | 46.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x36b7…ceb2backed Yes | 35c | 42.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…240ebacked Yes | 37c | 38.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 32c | 33.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 72c | 22.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac5b…2979backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 70c | 19.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 78c | 19.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 59c | 18.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 74c | 18.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xbb93…8fe7backed Yes | 61c | 17.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 71c | 16.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 79c | 15.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8c…7794backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C or below on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.