Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a67017cbcfebf650a152efbcb1cef0cdf76b40a24e820a45cbedc4e0d6fe69a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,847 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1762…c83ebacked Yes | 0c | 33,333$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 6c | 1,508$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 1c | 899.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 5c | 757.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 7c | 576.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 465.89$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…e7acbacked Yes | 4c | 300.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 11c | 299.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 5c | 270$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…a939backed Yes | 19c | 268.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 72c | 237.59$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 228.56$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 5c | 216.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 69c | 193.93$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.98 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 18c | 190.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed Yes | 38c | 184.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 7c | 177.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 172.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 18c | 170.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 36c | 157.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 75c | 156.41$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 149.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 71c | 137.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 30c | 134.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 13c | 120.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 17c | 116.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 10c | 115$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 112.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 63c | 107.38$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…15b1backed Yes | 18c | 106$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 102.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 17c | 102.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014f…ea08backed Yes | 14c | 100.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…8e67backed Yes | 34c | 98.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 27c | 97.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…63e0backed Yes | 19c | 91.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 40c | 74.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 40c | 73.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…5a51backed Yes | 20c | 70.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 65.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…abb2backed No | 70c | 59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd89f…4864backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 45.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 34c | 43.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 75c | 42.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…c7a6backed Yes | 25c | 42.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 71c | 41.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 32c | 40.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…e3babacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 80c | 39.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 69c | 39.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 35.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 39c | 34.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd26d…2ad6backed Yes | 30c | 33.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 69c | 29.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 78c | 25.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 72c | 21.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 69c | 17.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C or below on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on March 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on March 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.