UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc788463ce95b00f99edc6f79c9dea037ed15a66871f7832fee7ea6a187524af9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed Over | 64c | 3,976$2,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,422.02 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 36c | 1,526$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.21 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1047…9036backed Under | 41c | 1,448$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Over | 59c | 1,200$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8c…e275backed Over | 57c | 1,121$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.18 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 43c | 968.53$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.47 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | +13.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc387…5a97backed Under | 40c | 750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 35c | 724.39$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.54 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed Under | 38c | 384.61$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.15 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b87…dffdbacked Under | 40c | 245$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Under | 40c | 243.9$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.56 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 59c | 232.22$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.21 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 44c | 197.78$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3c…e7cbbacked Over | 54c | 159.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 43c | 96.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Under | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…3eefbacked Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 43c | 46.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ff…b178backed Under | 40c | 35.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Over | 53c | 32.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e3…b82ebacked Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 47c | 23.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 330: Jeremiah Wells vs. Myktybek Orolbai (Welterweight, Prelims)Jeremiah Wells won
- Will Jeremiah Wells win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.