UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5ca5412f0d5bcbfb0c908fd10bef1e1297848554e5fe45fd7a02e4699e19db7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed Yes | 19c | 1,581$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.24 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 32c | 1,484$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.75 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…b9f5backed No | 69c | 1,458$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.77 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…5dcebacked No | 77c | 1,278$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.96 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 48c | 999.24$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.21 | 152 | 38.2%58 W · 94 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…99e1backed Yes | 22c | 805.47$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.2 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc387…5a97backed No | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.29 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Yes | 30c | 639.15$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.74 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked No | 70c | 574.3$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.3 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Yes | 34c | 502$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.68 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Yes | 30c | 427.87$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.36 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 66c | 413.99$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.6 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…83b8backed Yes | 51c | 371.65$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.33 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Yes | 50c | 354.81$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.92 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…5333backed Yes | 47c | 333.17$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.44 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x99b1…196abacked Yes | 55c | 299.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd422…7e43backed No | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 30c | 230.44$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x269a…190ebacked No | 45c | 196$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.8 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 49c | 182.36$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.32 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 55c | 170$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 381 | 53.5%204 W · 177 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da2…22b6backed Yes | 34c | 167.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea16…4bd8backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…cfffbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 64c | 76.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8da6…107abacked Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…585dbacked No | 19c | 58.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…00f4backed Yes | 34c | 56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Yes | 31c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb518…3403backed No | 69c | 24.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 48c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 356 | 48.6%173 W · 183 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 330: Jeremiah Wells vs. Myktybek Orolbai (Welterweight, Prelims)Jeremiah Wells won
- Will Jeremiah Wells win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.