Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7896bc7239aee809094cab870841084c65a53533ab167fc841a5ef86efdf12c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof Ilbirs eSports, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a11…eb9dbacked Rune Eaters | 67c | 439.75$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.28 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…0a00backed Ilbirs eSports | 37c | 375.76$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.1 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Ilbirs eSports | 43c | 359.23$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.7 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 333.21$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.76 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Rune Eaters | 58c | 290$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.2 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…dc17backed Ilbirs eSports | 58c | 267.07$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.54 | 73 | 76.7%56 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Ilbirs eSports | 43c | 240.93$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.02 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…26edbacked Ilbirs eSports | 31c | 183.59$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.68 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…702dbacked Rune Eaters | 76c | 176.58$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.03 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ilbirs eSports | 31c | 131.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.01 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Rune Eaters | 63c | 120$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc9…e444backed Rune Eaters | 37c | 104.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Rune Eaters | 67c | 97.74$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked Rune Eaters | 58c | 73.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…5539backed Ilbirs eSports | 45c | 69.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 174 | 54%94 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Rune Eaters | 31c | 64.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Rune Eaters | 34c | 59.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Rune Eaters | 69c | 52.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bda…6652backed Ilbirs eSports | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Rune Eaters | 50c | 41.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Rune Eaters | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7b…f9eabacked Ilbirs eSports | 69c | 21.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.