Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18a41fdf883affcdf08805af5284e96e12037be12b9b8f3ded2340e80d06ce0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof Ilbirs eSports, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 25c | 982.05$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.53 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a11…eb9dbacked Rune Eaters | 52c | 944.19$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.66 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Rune Eaters | 69c | 674.62$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.31 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Ilbirs eSports | 25c | 645.9$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.22 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc9…e444backed Rune Eaters | 7c | 595.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…a576backed Rune Eaters | 51c | 582.17$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Ilbirs eSports | 49c | 304.81$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.91 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…82a6backed Ilbirs eSports | 24c | 301.31$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.01 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f0…b7aebacked Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked Rune Eaters | 60c | 197.26$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.36 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed Rune Eaters | 78c | 185.68$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.83 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Rune Eaters | 75c | 150$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a1…d53ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 23c | 124.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.79 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70e0…6821backed Ilbirs eSports | 25c | 114.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.95 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…a4cbbacked Rune Eaters | 71c | 111.68$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…a92cbacked Rune Eaters | 11c | 94.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…1f52backed Rune Eaters | 76c | 91.21$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.32 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 78.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2a…da0ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 76c | 74.53$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Rune Eaters | 46c | 73.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Rune Eaters | 75c | 72.39$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Ilbirs eSports | 63c | 60.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 167 | 52.7%88 W · 79 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Rune Eaters | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Rune Eaters | 46c | 35.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ff…55f2backed Ilbirs eSports | 61c | 32.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Ilbirs eSports | 49c | 29.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec3…2c88backed Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.