Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7ce4718e298eb187c95d706b61f8ce38f165090545d03dc771885c1b3eebd32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof Ilbirs eSports, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Rune Eaters | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.96 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ilbirs eSports | 35c | 1,446$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Rune Eaters | 46c | 1,052$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.38 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Rune Eaters | 79c | 528.47$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.49 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Ilbirs eSports | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a11…eb9dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 475.46$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.71 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…dc17backed Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 356.33$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.58 | 73 | 76.7%56 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Ilbirs eSports | 53c | 332.59$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.32 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Ilbirs eSports | 33c | 299.97$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.98 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Rune Eaters | 26c | 264.54$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.04 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 251.85$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.55 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee3…7c36backed Rune Eaters | 62c | 244.68$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.12 | 241 | 31.5%76 W · 165 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 194.64$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.5 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 37c | 166.89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.15 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Rune Eaters | 60c | 152.89$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Rune Eaters | 61c | 145.58$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.43 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…26edbacked Rune Eaters | 70c | 140$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Rune Eaters | 8c | 130$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…3ccebacked Ilbirs eSports | 53c | 120.54$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Ilbirs eSports | 75c | 114.18$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…a423backed Ilbirs eSports | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Ilbirs eSports | 39c | 98.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Ilbirs eSports | 39c | 86.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Ilbirs eSports | 40c | 69.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Ilbirs eSports | 59c | 55.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…c2e9backed Ilbirs eSports | 70c | 49.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed Ilbirs eSports | 36c | 45.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Rune Eaters | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Rune Eaters | 33c | 37.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…bf74backed Rune Eaters | 37c | 30.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Rune Eaters | 49c | 25.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 359 | 48.2%173 W · 186 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18d…9c5bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked Rune Eaters | 70c | 15.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.