Earnings · resolved market
Will Texas Instruments (TXN) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc78d33680f069737cb1b10c6b6b3e84cc4dc501c4b094ab4d566beeaf3ea8685
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 20c | 1,620$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.88 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 79c | 566.55$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.57 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a48…e094backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2d…2eacbacked Yes | 79c | 354.2$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 63c | 255.71$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.75 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…92b4backed Yes | 78c | 188$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 31c | 97.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 70c | 95.1$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 70c | 73.07$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8118…9850backed No | 30c | 72.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…87c2backed Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe690…f448backed Yes | 75c | 66.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 17c | 60.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 342 | 37.1%127 W · 215 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 79c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…3a77backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked Yes | 74c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fa…4f2dbacked Yes | 80c | 41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59a7…3b81backed Yes | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…c6ccbacked Yes | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43a2…cba6backed Yes | 79c | 37.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 71c | 26.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 168 | 64.3%108 W · 60 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…f634backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9635…6863backed Yes | 72c | 16.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.