MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc790350e38fae42db45cac8632b4ba3282cc2365fcf94d47a10ce8f8e1930731
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Chicago White Sox | 46c | 4,622$2,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,476.11 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd7…33d9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 2,210$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.61 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a5…312ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 1,834$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.86 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b3…6b95backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 1,116$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.34 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Chicago White Sox | 47c | 983.97$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.37 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Chicago White Sox | 48c | 657.97$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.14 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 481.67$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.47 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 458.4$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.95 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b6…3d60backed Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 414.63$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Chicago White Sox | 45c | 397.68$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.72 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago White Sox | 45c | 392.98$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.1 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed Chicago White Sox | 49c | 353.11$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.54 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Chicago White Sox | 47c | 205.65$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.83 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff8…8a76backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 204.08$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.08 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 195$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.35 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 154.06$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…8961backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 109.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 97.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…68fbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 92.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb152…9a54backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 87.46$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 63.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Chicago White Sox | 47c | 33.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 27.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d08…9e8dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe46d…8b87backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 24.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…a68cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 20.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 162 | 56.2%91 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.