MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7a665931c29cf38b6b1cf62cb7aadf7d9654d0dee1e3c527295a49bb89b463b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Kansas City Royals | 40c | 1,386$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.26 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Kansas City Royals | 28c | 1,315$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.99 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Athletics | 69c | 1,072$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.12 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Athletics | 60c | 920.15$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.09 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 74c | 626.23$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.78 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Kansas City Royals | 26c | 563.23$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.79 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Athletics | 65c | 554$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.45 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Kansas City Royals | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…650bbacked Athletics | 62c | 160.48$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Kansas City Royals | 39c | 153.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.07 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Athletics | 62c | 129.84$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Kansas City Royals | 50c | 114.64$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Kansas City Royals | 38c | 110.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Athletics | 61c | 109$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Kansas City Royals | 51c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Athletics | 71c | 76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Athletics | 61c | 56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Kansas City Royals | 79c | 54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 84 | 84.5%71 W · 13 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Kansas City Royals | 39c | 51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Athletics | 79c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Athletics | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Athletics | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Athletics | 73c | 17.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 191 | 57.6%110 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…4213backed Athletics | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. AthleticsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.