TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, Athletics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$273,806
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$297,123

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $273,806 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 277 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1117…3532backed Kansas City Royals51c22,000$11,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,78060451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Athletics49c18,000$8,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,819.9938148.6%185 W · 196 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x446f…b09fbacked Kansas City Royals35c15,333$5,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,966.45933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-26.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Athletics50c14,676$7,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,314.481,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Athletics66c13,509$8,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,945.5210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Athletics49c12,738$6,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,241.625862.1%36 W · 22 L+7.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Athletics49c10,772$5,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,278.3777053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals43c7,952$3,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,565.529,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Kansas City Royals52c7,586$3,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,658.781,14142.9%490 W · 651 L-37.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Kansas City Royals50c7,313$3,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,670.614,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Kansas City Royals57c7,150$4,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,038.952,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Kansas City Royals50c5,756$2,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,877.785,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Athletics68c5,398$3,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,65043554%235 W · 200 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcbf…d37fbacked Kansas City Royals39c5,244$2,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,174.769153.8%49 W · 42 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6498…8910backed Athletics57c5,000$2,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,849.3251756.5%292 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x844e…4efdbacked Kansas City Royals41c4,000$1,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,376.891233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Kansas City Royals51c4,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,959.9875248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals45c3,748$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,047.738,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Athletics50c3,338$1,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,66926245.8%120 W · 142 L-17.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked Athletics49c3,161$1,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,551.268353%44 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Athletics57c3,052$1,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,731.465,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Kansas City Royals48c2,984$1,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,543.311,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x695b…36c8backed Kansas City Royals37c2,921$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,853.391258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+45.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde1d…44a6backed Kansas City Royals35c2,800$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8201464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals31c2,156$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,478.2712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Kansas City Royals50c2,109$1,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.3833852.7%178 W · 160 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Kansas City Royals44c2,051$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.282,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4ea…cfb2backed Athletics65c2,047$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,340250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Athletics49c2,034$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.411,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Kansas City Royals50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00027451.8%142 W · 132 L+1.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d0…e11cbacked Kansas City Royals51c1,950$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.346845.6%31 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals51c1,853$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.36,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Kansas City Royals50c1,664$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.913,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Kansas City Royals48c1,618$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.3723036.1%83 W · 147 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d57…18ddbacked Athletics50c1,600$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80011947.1%56 W · 63 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3ad…45f9backed Kansas City Royals51c1,527$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.2311741.9%49 W · 68 L-8.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Kansas City Royals37c1,458$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.0119934.2%68 W · 131 L-9.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x851c…dafdbacked Kansas City Royals35c1,423$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.564528.9%13 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58b6…c324backed Athletics75c1,400$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0502751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Athletics10c1,379$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.861,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb7…a0f1backed Athletics55c1,350$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.55050%25 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Kansas City Royals43c1,329$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.172,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Athletics57c1,317$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75015749.7%78 W · 79 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf009…43d0backed Kansas City Royals46c1,296$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.611051.8%57 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b15…fa73backed Athletics60c1,288$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.0233864.2%217 W · 121 L+23.1wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa969…1a84backed Kansas City Royals51c1,273$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.7717452.9%92 W · 82 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Athletics34c1,165$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.331,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc99…ce7ebacked Kansas City Royals39c1,128$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.21933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Kansas City Royals50c1,112$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.492,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Kansas City Royals51c1,100$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5391,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Kansas City Royals51c1,033$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.086350.8%32 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Kansas City Royals50c1,020$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51012850%64 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Athletics60c1,013$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.871,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6628…05aebacked Kansas City Royals33c999.99$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.9923244%102 W · 130 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Kansas City Royals48c999.92$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.7748850.2%245 W · 243 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked Kansas City Royals38c947.56$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.5860941.4%252 W · 357 L-22.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf3b…0230backed Athletics76c789.47$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002491.7%22 W · 2 L+4.6wins+0.19per pick72cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5d21…abc5backed Athletics52c729.43$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.312441.1%51 W · 73 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d2a…d5d0backed Athletics71c715.49$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Kansas City Royals67c710.9$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.891,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Kansas City Royals34c690.05$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.061,13742.6%484 W · 653 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x973f…dc4ebacked Athletics62c688.71$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x272b…0a6ebacked Athletics52c673.08$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3503360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+21.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Athletics66c642.93$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.155,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x066e…ceb2backed Athletics53c600$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31825240.1%101 W · 151 L+0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad2e…d9bdbacked Athletics50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-59.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c55…97d4backed Athletics58c574.14$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33313655.1%75 W · 61 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Kansas City Royals39c543.78$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.2370735.1%248 W · 459 L-31.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Kansas City Royals27c530$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.774,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Athletics49c510.2$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed Athletics49c510$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.922548.4%109 W · 116 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Kansas City Royals52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24019248.4%93 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Kansas City Royals50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25055052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Kansas City Royals52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.353857.9%22 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57f3…4fcfbacked Athletics50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25017954.2%97 W · 82 L-0.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Athletics61c499.98$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.9917768.9%122 W · 55 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe08…10ebbacked Athletics50c493$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.51855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+22.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Athletics51c491.9$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.611,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Kansas City Royals52c480.77$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.7743153.6%231 W · 200 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Kansas City Royals43c460.77$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.391,11349%545 W · 568 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaea…4bbfbacked Kansas City Royals51c460.47$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.638652.3%45 W · 41 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+29.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x40ff…9d91backed Kansas City Royals24c450$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34220443.1%88 W · 116 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Athletics63c443.85$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.711,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x203c…2082backed Athletics57c434.35$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.58837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Athletics53c433.49$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.846,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Kansas City Royals34c430.99$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.6485235.8%305 W · 547 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Kansas City Royals33c430.43$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.386,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Athletics49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20066551.1%340 W · 325 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Athletics49c402.26$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.081,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde27…2cfdbacked Athletics55c400$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x782b…ff64backed Kansas City Royals51c397$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.5350860.2%306 W · 202 L+29.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x044e…28d3backed Kansas City Royals35c391.31$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.35862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f6a…9888backed Kansas City Royals44c380$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.7478649.1%386 W · 400 L+3.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xae51…0d08backed Athletics54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20036440.1%146 W · 218 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Kansas City Royals50c362$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18175049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a6…6991backed Kansas City Royals32c352.55$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.4139739.5%157 W · 240 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Athletics58c344.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20081257.3%465 W · 347 L-1.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecc2…a2c6backed Athletics60c334.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Kansas City Royals37c324.7$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.4450337.2%187 W · 316 L-42.3wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5234…4c4fbacked Athletics54c323$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.54847.9%23 W · 25 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.