MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46c969550c8287a33b6774088f42105e755f341b2dfc95e6c7c9e0327c2e2a05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 40c | 18,957$7,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,582.97 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…5143backed Under | 60c | 13,028$7,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,211 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Under | 60c | 4,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 60c | 2,479$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.44 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 40c | 968.55$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.15 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01a…cc6abacked Under | 60c | 791.52$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 60c | 787.37$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.95 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 37c | 738.22$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.98 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 40c | 600$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 38c | 354.44$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.69 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 40c | 260.02$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.26 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 40c | 226$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8001…c76fbacked Under | 60c | 173$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…0d22backed Under | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 77c | 142.82$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 36c | 136.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…0845backed Under | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…e91cbacked Under | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Over | 41c | 60.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Under | 60c | 47.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3711…7339backed Under | 60c | 24.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x088d…3516backed Under | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +6.6wins | +0.35per pick | 49cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. AthleticsKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 5.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.