NFL · resolved market
Raiders vs. Chargers: O/U 40.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7aa8ce21106fcd2ef47983fe742ad5709b60bafd2ece0ef22cf4fbe9aa41128
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 8,910$4,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,365.69 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 8,000$4,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,950 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 1c | 8,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 2cpaid | +931.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Over | 52c | 6,904$3,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,339.02 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +7.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 50c | 5,523$2,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,785 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Under | 51c | 4,742$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 49c | 2,941$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a09…db1cbacked Over | 51c | 2,941$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.18 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…d61ebacked Under | 54c | 926.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 75c | 926.38$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.79 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 920.5$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.77 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Over | 51c | 784.31$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.31 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Over | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 577.71$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.04 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…ba36backed Under | 51c | 196.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…87d5backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 50c | 128$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397d…794fbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…e729backed Over | 51c | 83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…3ae8backed Under | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd10f…4e07backed Under | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…7975backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 36c | 35.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3415…034cbacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…0accbacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raiders vs. Chargers: O/U 40.5this page
- Raiders vs. ChargersChargers won
- Raiders vs. Chargers: O/U 32.5Over won
- Raiders vs. Chargers: O/U 41.5Over won
- Spread: Chargers (-10.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Chargers (-13.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Chargers (-9.5)Chargers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.