NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chargers (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x155eb4c3a1fb31c491aab314ddeafb938f425ff37f66dd9e7c98845d4a67dd6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chargersof Chargers, Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c81…fce3backed Raiders | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Raiders | 46c | 2,736$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.66 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Chargers | 52c | 2,707$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.47 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Chargers | 44c | 2,472$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.05 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Chargers | 54c | 2,209$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.05 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Chargers | 45c | 2,087$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.44 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Raiders | 55c | 1,746$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.3 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Chargers | 42c | 1,244$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.45 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Chargers | 51c | 1,231$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.22 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raiders | 55c | 1,110$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.31 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Raiders | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Raiders | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6d…1ba1backed Raiders | 56c | 796.8$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Chargers | 46c | 540.29$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.94 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Raiders | 57c | 463$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.91 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Chargers | 54c | 437.4$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.3 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…937abacked Raiders | 51c | 417.65$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Chargers | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Raiders | 54c | 217.39$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…f4f4backed Chargers | 51c | 203.92$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.92 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Raiders | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaf…4f6bbacked Raiders | 50c | 171.65$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -76%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Chargers | 44c | 166.18$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.69 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Raiders | 52c | 137$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Chargers | 50c | 131.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.34 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Chargers | 48c | 127$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Chargers | 48c | 123$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397d…794fbacked Raiders | 56c | 117.86$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Raiders | 52c | 113$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Chargers | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Raiders | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Chargers | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Raiders | 55c | 95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Raiders | 56c | 94.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Raiders | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…f955backed Raiders | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Chargers | 43c | 87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Chargers | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Raiders | 57c | 69.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Chargers | 45c | 69.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Chargers | 44c | 60.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Raiders | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2efb…a04ebacked Chargers | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Chargers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Chargers | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Chargers | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…5ed7backed Raiders | 55c | 24.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Raiders | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chargers (-10.5)this page
- Raiders vs. ChargersChargers won
- Raiders vs. Chargers: O/U 32.5Over won
- Raiders vs. Chargers: O/U 40.5Over won
- Raiders vs. Chargers: O/U 41.5Over won
- Spread: Chargers (-13.5)Chargers won
- Spread: Chargers (-9.5)Chargers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.