Mls · resolved market
FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7d46849ead6f95815113d89791bcdb6529d62ce20b481ec2a6769678276a39a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc518…b9bebacked Over | 79c | 5,000$3,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.37 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Under | 20c | 3,650$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.91 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 28c | 113.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…e4bcbacked Under | 31c | 104.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Under | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…3a92backed Under | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 20c | 63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed Over | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 75c | 25.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…b138backed Over | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)Chicago Fire FC won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)Chicago Fire FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.