Mls · resolved market
FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f0f586115b8089131632c755ccd9536a8afc4bee711f27a1de16ce2068d962e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x443b…e8bbbacked Under | 42c | 4,381$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 58c | 2,652$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.82 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 59c | 2,529$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.62 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 41c | 1,764$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.55 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Over | 58c | 1,713$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.27 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2114…84c5backed Under | 42c | 1,217$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 43c | 1,194$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.51 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 59c | 1,163$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.67 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 60c | 700$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 41c | 546$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.86 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 49c | 380$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.8 | 103 | 19.4%20 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 40c | 323$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.26 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 51c | 230$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.3 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 189.83$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.23 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 58c | 130.85$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 41c | 130.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -7.0wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 53c | 129.7$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…b9bebacked Over | 58c | 128.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 60c | 123.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 114.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…3206backed Over | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 61c | 84.51$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 63c | 68.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8510…e41ebacked Over | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe741…fc1abacked Over | 59c | 67.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +16.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +10.7wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 52c | 62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 30c | 56.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 79c | 50.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb29a…bbdebacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 80c | 48.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 39c | 45.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…3a92backed Under | 55c | 36.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 41c | 28.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 59c | 21.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Over | 58c | 19.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 58c | 17.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b4…01fdbacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)Chicago Fire FC won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)Chicago Fire FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.